YET ANOTHER STALEMATE

Predictably, the 27 October snap ballot – the 7th in three years – failed to elect a viable parliament capable of producing a long-term government. With a turnout of just over 38 percent – slightly higher than the pervious election in June 2024 – it took about 10,700 votes for an MP to get elected.

Boyko Borisov's GERB won the election with 26.38 percent of the vote. With 14.2 percent, the PP-DB, or Changes Continued-Democratic Bulgaria, emerged second, just ahead of the extremist and pro-Russian Revival, led by Kostadin Kostadinov, which garnered 13.35 percent. The remnants of Ahmed Dogan's DPS, or Movement for Rights and Freedoms, which now calls itself APS, or Alliance for Rights and Freedoms, got 7.48 percent, trailing behind the DPS-NN, or DPS-New Beginning, led by Delyan Peevski, which got 11.54 percent of the vote. The BSP-OL, or Bulgarian Socialist Party-United Left Wing, emerged 5th, with 7.57 percent. With 6.78 percent There Is Such a People party, founded and led by Slavi Trifonov, a former TV showman, is the sixth largest in the new National Assembly. And MECH, or Sword, a new political grouping founded by a former ITN and PP-DB member, Radostin Vasilev, managed to jump over the 4 percent election threshold and will be the seventh, and smallest, party in the new parliament.

What are the key takeaways?

A divided nation

Ever since the fall of Communism in 1989 Bulgarians have rarely been unified in any political cause. The situation seems to have worsened in recent years. The division lines have multiplied. It is no longer a clash between the good old days of Communism, where incomes were low but sufficient, and life was predictable, and the brave new world of Bulgaria's arguably twisted multiparty democracy. The division lines now are being created on a daily basis. Some fade away within a few days, others last longer. Should Bulgaria move closer to Russia, which many Bulgarians see as a traditional "brother," or try to integrate itself better with the West? Is Bulgaria to help Ukraine in its combat against the Russian aggressors or should it lay low for fear a stray missile might land in he middle of Varna? Are the EU, NATO, the West in general and the United States in particular, out to "rob" Bulgaria of its "traditional values"? Most of these questions have very specific and quite uncomplicated answers, but the media and especially social media din enshrouding them precludes any calm-headed, down-to-earth analysis.

If the 38 percent turnout is anything to go by, the majority of Bulgarians no longer care. And this is a direct result of the mentality of Communism, where everyone knew nothing depended on them because one party would always have the final say. It is also the result of the 35 years of post-Communist turmoil, in local parlance referred to as The Transition, that the Bulgarian nation has been unwilling or unable to rise above.

PP-DB's decline

The PP-DB is an alliance of parties often identifying themselves as pro-Western intellectuals. The PP, or Changes Continued, is the most recent addition to it. Founded and led by Kiril Petkov and Asen Vasilev, themselves propelled into the political spotlight by President Rumen Radev in 2021, have made a series of decisions that alienated many of their original supporters. First, they joined forces with the DB and DSB. The DB, or Democratic Bulgaria, was led by Hristo Ivanov, who resigned when his party lost heavily in the previous snap election. The DSB, or Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria, was founded by Ivan Kostov, who was prime minister in 1997-2001, and whom some of Bulgaria's right-wingers continue to swear by. The DSB has been led by General Atanas Atanasov, a former security services boss, whose main agenda appears to be identifying and exposing former Communist-era secret police operatives plotting to destabilise Bulgaria.

Collectively, the PP-DB-DSB entered an uneasy alliance with Boyko Borisov's GERB, which they had blamed for everything that had gone wrong in Bulgaria in the 2010s – from corruption to being insufficiently pro-Western.

Unless they resolutely distance themselves from the mentality of the likes of Gen Atanasov, who belongs to the early 1990s rather than the mid-2020s and unless they start speaking the language of the people in the street, the PP-DB will likely continue to decline.

Revival has maxed out

In spite of protestations especially by PP-DB's pro-Western intellectuals that Kostadin "Kostya Kopeykin" Kostadinov is a fascist that can take the country like the Nazis did in Germany, in 1932, Revival seems to have maxed out. It is openly pro-Russian and pro-Putin, anti-establishment, nationalist, racist, anti-Western and anti-liberal. Kostadinov wants Bulgaria out of the EU and NATO, and closer to Putin's brainchild, Brics. He takes his cue from Western parties like the AfD in Germany and Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement national in France. Kostadin Kostadinov and his followers may be extremist in many ways, but even in a country with few parliamentary democracy traditions like Bulgaria extremism can grow up to a limit. According to political scientists, that limits is about 20-25 percent. With this in mind, Kostadin Kostadinov is unlikely to cause any additional turbulence.

DPS splits

If the 27 October election produced any real commotion in Bulgarian politics it concerned the DPS, or the Turkish-dominated Movement for Rights and Freedoms. Founded just after the collapse of Communism by Ahmed Dogan, the DPS was supposed to protect the rights of Bulgaria's one million Muslims, many of whom ethnic Turks. Through the years the DPS has often been a power broker in Bulgarian politics, allying itself with whoever it liked in order to partake of the power while ensuring support for the government of the day. On several occasions the DPS successfully toppled governments dominated by much larger parties because it withdrew its support at the right time. To cut a long story short, the DPS has had a more or less monolithic presence in Bulgarian politics.

And now the unthinkable has happened. Delyan Peevski, who was recently sanctioned under the US Magnitsky Act, managed to split the DPS – for reasons that continue to be unclear. The party he now leads calls itself New Beginning. The erstwhile DPS, which among other things claims copyright on the name, is led by the original DPS's honorary chairman Ahmed Dogan.

If the original DPS was around, it would have garnered as much as 19.02 percent of the vote. It would have emerged as the second largest party in the National Assembly, ahead of both the PP-DB and Revival.

BSP wanes

Kornelia Ninova, the former leader of the BSP who resigned in the wake of the party's disastrous performance at the ballot boxes in the summer, managed to decapitate whatever was left of the Bulgarian Socialist Party, the heir to the former Communists. Unlike any other leftist party in Europe, the BSP under Ninova was vitriolically anti-woke and anti-immigration, and vociferously nationalist. Ninova wanted to protect what she called "Bulgarian traditional values." The BSP is now pro-Russian, though not as outspoken as Kostadin Kostadinov's Revival. Infighting within the BSP has prevented it from being able to find a replacement for Ninova. What is clear about the BSP – and by proxy for Bulgarian politics in general – is that this country badly needs a modern leftwing, socially-oriented party to pitch against all the rightwing noises most of the other political groupings produce. However, such a leftwing project does not appear to be in the works, not at the present time. The BSP, which has boasted over 100 years of history, is still trying to find its feet.

GERB capitalises on "common sense"

Seen against the at times pathetic gesticulations, accusations and demands of the PP-DB, Revival, Delyan Peevski and the BSP, Boyko Borisov's GERB appears to bring a measure of common sense. Borisov may not be as confident as he was in the late 2000s, when he rose to power, but he continues to exude authority. Significantly, his populist instincts, so far unrivalled by anyone in today's Bulgarian politics, lead him to continue to speak to ordinary voters the way he always has. The You-Are-Simple-People-and-I-Am-a-Simple-Man-so-We-Will-Understand-Each-Other adage continues to work wonders. To quote the great American satirist, the rumours about Borisov's political death have been exaggerated especially when one bears in mind the quality of his opponents.

Eccentricities etc.

To add some spice to the makeup of the new Bulgarian parliament, MECH, an acronym for Morality, Unity and Honour, managed to jump over the 4 percent election threshold and will likely compound even further what is already a very chequered National Assembly. Little is known about what its leader, Radostin Vasilev, a former member of the ITN and the PP-DB and a former youth and sports minister, has on his agenda except that he wants an "immediate cessation" of Bulgaria's military aid to Ukraine and a declaration of "full neutrality." MECH will probably be used by one of the bigger players to sway votes on the floor when needed.

The case of another fringe player, Grandeur, also merits a mention. In the June 2024 election that grouping, founded by Ivelin Mihaylov, an entrepreneur that some media describe as running a Ponzi scheme, managed to overcome the 4 percent election threshold. Its parliamentary grouping fell apart even before the previous National Assembly was constituted. Mihaylov stood for office again. He fell short of the entry barrier by... 22 (twenty-two) votes.

Mihaylov, the ITN, the PP-DB and others were quick to pronounce the election unfair and corrupt, and demand its partial or thorough annulment. Whether that happens is up to the Constitutional Court to decide. In any case, no matter what the justices rule, Bulgaria is increasingly faced with yet another snap election, possibly next spring.