ELECTIONS 5.8

If opinion polls are anything to go by (and in Bulgaria they usually aren't), the next snap election, scheduled for 19 April, will produce a less fragmented parliament. If this does happen, the country may be in for a period of relative political stability, something which the constant bickering in Bulgarian politics has deprived citizens of since the beginning of the current bout of snap elections.

First, the background. In keeping with the country's Constitution, general elections in Bulgaria must be held every four years. Elections for president must be held every five years as no elected president can stay in office for longer than two terms. In contrast, a prime minister can remain in power for as long as his or her party garners the majority of votes and/or is able (or willing) to muster a coalition with other parties that can command a first-past-the-post majority. At 4 percent, the election threshold is middle-of-the-road in European standards (compare to 2 percent in Denmark and 7 percent in Turkey).

The system, established in the 1990s after the collapse of Communism and the disintegration of the former East bloc, started to crack in the 2000s: few general elections held since then have been "regular," or scheduled every four years. Most have been called before time. However, they somehow managed to produce more or less stable governments for an average of about three years. All of these governments have had (in various capacities) one kingpin: Boyko Borisov.

The serious crisis started in 2021. The reasons are many and varied, but come down to the emergence of a motley collection of political groupings that had little in common with each other except for their discontent with what they saw as the corrupt system of governance initiated by Boyko Borisov. These have included, but have not been limited to, the the populist ITN, or There is Such a People party of former TV showman Slavi Trifonov; the self-professed pro-Western CC, or Changed Continued, of Asen Vasilev; the anti-EU and pro-Russian Vazrazhdane, or Revival, of Kostadin Kоstadinov; and smaller groupings such as the nationalist MECH, or Morality, Unity, Honour; and the similarly themed (pun unintended) Velichie, or Grandeur, which was founded as the political tool of a failed... historical theme park.

In 2021 three snap elections failed to produce a coherent and viable parliamentary presentation. So did a series of other general elections in 2022, 2023 and twice in 2024. In keeping with the Constitution (and in contrast to many developed democracies in the EU), in Bulgaria, when a government collapses, the president has to appoint a "caretaker government." Since 2021, Bulgaria has had six caretaker governments, including the current one, whose first minister is Andrey Gyurov. His job, in addition to managing the day-to-day affairs of the state, is to make sure a free and fair general election is held on the day determined by the president. That day, in 2026, is 19 April.

Who are the main players? The usual suspects, of course, will all be there. Boyko Borisov's GERB, Delyan Peevski's Movement for Rights and Freedoms – New Beginning, and Asen Vasilev's Changes Continue are expected to enter the next National Assembly. The embattled BSP, or Bulgarian Socialist Party (the heir to the Bulgarian Communist Party), may win just enough votes to jump over the election threshold. Ahmed Dogan's Alliance for Rights and Freedoms, which is the remnant of the original DPS that Delyan Peevski successfully splintered, will in all likelihood remain outside the next National Assembly. So will the ITN, MECH and Grandeur.

The dark horse in the upcoming election is expected to win big time. It is Rumen Radev, the former president.

A military pilot and Air Force general, Radev was elected president in 2016 and reelected for a second term in 2021. His tenure would have expired in 2027, but earlier this year Radev, surprisingly, resigned from office and set up his own political party. Opinion polls predict that party, which will be called Progressive Bulgaria, will garner about 30 percent of the vote, which is about 10 percent ahead of Boyko Borisov's GERB, about 20 percent ahead of Changes Continued and about 24 percent ahead of the pro-Putin Vazrazhdane.

In his first month of existence as a political subject, Rumen Radev has done little if anything to disclose what his agenda may be, who he intends to employ or partner with, and who will be his candidate MPs. Notwithstanding the unclarity, or perhaps owing to it, Bulgarians of many shades and hues have decided to support him.

According to opinion polls slightly over a month before election day, as many as 60 percent of BSP supporters, 50 percent of Vazrazhdane supporters, 30 percent of MECH supporters and over 20 percent of Changes Continued-Democratic Bulgaria supporters will desert their preferred parties and cast their ballots for Radev.

Obviously, Radev has many critics as well. Some, generally belonging to the largely hypothetical "right wing" of Bulgarian politics, claim Radev is nothing but a "Russian puppet." He has failed to take a "unequivocal" stand against Putin and dawdles on Ukraine, they proffer. Others, usually identifying themselves with the "left wing," charge the former president is overly pro-Western and is ready to "sell out" Bulgaria to the EU and the West in general.

The indications of the opinion polls, however, suggest otherwise. Over 30 percent of the voters do not really care where Radev stands on Ukraine or the introduction of the euro. What they see in him is a man who (unlike the overwhelming majority of Bulgarian politicians through the years), is serious and disciplined enough, military style, and who does not usually open his mouth only to put his foot in it.

To put it in another way, 30 percent of the polled tend to judge  public figures by their deeds rather than by their words. Radev, for his part, appears to epitomise what Bulgarians have been increasingly longing for ever since the heady days of the 1990s, when the transition toward democracy was under way: moderation. They appear to be sick and tired of bombastic promises that no one has any intention to fulfil and of the incessant squabble that has come to epitomise Bulgarian domestic politics. Radev, they infer, will be a welcome breath of fresh air.

Of course, it remains to be seen how the election campaign pans out and whether public support for the former president increases or wanes. What seems certain at this point in time is that the Air Force general will probably score the biggest victory for a newcomer to politics since Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, who won the general election  in 2001 with 42.74 percent of the vote and thus wrote world history by becoming the first and so far only former royal to get elected as prime minister.